Originally published in Hideaway Lake New on March 4, 2021
Almost 50 million doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, either Pfizer or Moderna, have been administered at the time of writing this article. According to data, the risk of severe disease is reduced by 95% after you receive two doses of either vaccine.
You get maximum protection against the virus starting at about two weeks after the second dose of your mRNA vaccine. At this time we do not know how long the immunity from the vaccine will last, but we hope it will be for several months to a year. A recent study reported that people with natural COVID-19 infection could have immunity for 8 months or longer, so we expect something similar with the vaccines as well.
Although about 10% of the population has been vaccinated, and about 20% of the population has been estimated to have recovered from a natural infection, these numbers are not close to providing herd immunity. We will likely need at least 60% of people vaccinated or recovered to reach herd immunity, which is when things can start getting back to where they were before the pandemic. However, until that happens, there are some allowances that can be made for those who have been fully vaccinated, i.e. two weeks post second dose, and have no COVID-like symptoms.
Note that none of these activities described below are completely risk free since the vaccine does not provide 100% protection, but then there are very few things in life that are totally without risk. If all interacting parties are fully vaccinated, then the risk of severe disease is minimal.
The CDC has announced that if you are fully vaccinated, you don’t need to quarantine after exposure to someone with COVID-19, as long as you have no symptoms.
You could hug someone who has been fully vaccinated.
You could have a small group of fully vaccinated people socialize over a meal.
You could play a game of bridge with a small group of fully vaccinated people.
You could sit with your fully vaccinated buddy in a golf cart.
It will take several months for us to reach herd immunity, and while we get there, we would still need masking and social distancing in general public settings since there is no way to know who is and isn’t fully vaccinated. Unless you personally know that a person is vaccinated, assume that they are not.
For those of us who have not yet been vaccinated, we should take heart that vaccine production is steadily increasing and new vaccines are being submitted for approval, including some that will need only one shot. The future’s certainly looking brighter. Of course there are risks of new mutations that may not be susceptible to the current vaccines, but the sooner we reach herd immunity, the harder it will be for the virus to replicate and mutate.
Let us start taking cautious baby steps towards socializing among fully vaccinated people.
Hopefully these baby steps will soon get us back to normal. Be healthy and happy!